Randomize properly, stratify heavy users, and pre‑register hypotheses so you are not chasing noise. Use sequential methods cautiously, guard against peeking, and compute power before launching. Open libraries make CUPED, variance reduction, and nonparametrics approachable. Publish a decision memo, including risks, to ensure alignment before rollout begins.
When you cannot randomize, draw causal diagrams, enumerate confounders, and test identification assumptions explicitly. Libraries like DoWhy and EconML support effect estimation under transparent assumptions. Sensitivity analyses reveal fragility. Communicate uncertainty clearly so stakeholders understand limits, yet still gain directional guidance for prioritization, resourcing, and customer communication.
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